The declared point or trigger after which a forecast must be recalculated because delivery evidence, scope, capacity, cost or assumptions may no longer represent the decision context.

# Forecast expiry

Forecast expiry is an editorial synthesis, not a term defined by GAO. It makes the review condition visible instead of allowing a dated forecast to retain authority by default.

It is not the established concept of rolling-wave planning, which concerns progressive planning detail. This term addresses when a decision-bearing forecast loses its stated evidence basis.

Expiry can be calendar-based, such as the end of a Sprint, or event-based, such as a team change, material backlog reorder or observed delivery outside the forecast basis.

## Sources

- gao-cost-estimating-guide-2020 (primary)