# Predictive vs Adaptive

Choose predictive, adaptive, or hybrid delivery from evidence about uncertainty and constraints.

Duration: 10 min

Predictive work is appropriate when the problem, solution, and constraints are well understood and change is costly. Adaptive work is appropriate when uncertainty is high and feedback can change the next decision. Hybrid approaches deliberately combine both.

Agility is not the automatic choice for every project. The useful question is whether the work can be known accurately enough in advance, and how quickly the team can learn from a safe, usable increment.

**Apply it.** Use the accompanying decision canvas. State what is uncertain, what evidence could arrive soon, what cannot safely change, and the approach you will use. A credible answer can be predictive, adaptive, or hybrid; its quality comes from the evidence and constraints named, not from the label.

## fmap-m1-l4-v1

The native HTML explainer and equivalent written path teach predictive vs adaptive with synchronized narration, captions, chapters, and a readable transcript.

## fmap-m1-l4-digest

### Fit the approach to the work

A predictive approach invests more heavily in defining and sequencing work before execution. It can fit situations where the problem and solution are well understood, repetition is high, and late change is expensive.

An adaptive approach creates short cycles in which a usable result produces evidence for the next decision. It fits work where needs, technology, or solution choices are uncertain and inexpensive feedback is available.

A hybrid approach deliberately uses both. A fixed regulatory deadline may coexist with adaptive discovery inside the delivery effort. The label matters less than making the boundary and rationale explicit.

Agile does not mean no plans, no deadlines, no documentation, no managers, or constant change. It means planning and coordination remain open to relevant evidence.

**Worked decision.** A statutory filing uses a prescribed format and has severe error penalties. Predictive planning is sensible for the filing itself. If the organisation is also designing a new support service around that filing, it may trial a low-risk prototype and adjust it from user feedback. The result is hybrid because different parts of the work face different uncertainty and constraints.

## fmap-m1-l4-i1

The digest provides the same decision relationship without reordering controls.

## fmap-m1-l4-r1

### Myth-buster

- **No planning?** Planning happens repeatedly as evidence changes.
- **No documentation?** Create documentation that helps delivery, use, safety, or maintenance.
- **No deadlines?** Time constraints remain real; smaller increments expose risk sooner.
- **Change everything constantly?** Change when evidence justifies the cost.
- **Predictive work is always wrong?** Stable, repeatable work can benefit from prediction.
- **One framework defines agile?** Frameworks are tools; the values and principles are the shared foundation.

## fmap-m1-q1

This optional module check is formative and never enters the certificate denominator.

## fmap-m1-l4-download

Use the template pack to record uncertainty, feedback opportunities, fixed constraints, and the rationale for an approach.