governance
Rolling-wave forecast
A forecast revised at declared checkpoints as actual cost, delivery evidence and changed assumptions become available, while preserving the basis of earlier versions.
A rolling-wave forecast replaces one permanently correct prediction with a controlled sequence of estimates. Each version records what was known, what changed and which decision the evidence should alter.
It is not permission to move a date without consequence. Where a contract, regulation or external event fixes a deadline, the forecast should expose which scope, funding or risk decision must change.
Sources
- Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and Managing Program Costs · primary
- The Scrum Guide · canonical