governance
Uncertainty driver
A named assumption, dependency, novelty or information gap that could materially change a forecast and can be linked to a learning action or decision.
This is an editorial synthesis grounded in the source’s underlying uncertainty discipline, not a term defined by GAO. Naming the driver is intended to show what evidence could narrow the range and where a decision-maker may need to alter scope, sequence, funding or risk appetite.
An uncertainty driver is not automatically a risk event. Some variation is inherent even when no discrete event occurs.
Sources
- Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and Managing Program Costs · primary