Present the estimate as a decision
5 min · Build the first estimate
Show a plausible duration range, its evidence basis and the slices that could move it. Define the team cost per period and list one-off costs separately. Do not imply that staffing and duration move linearly.
Finish with the choice the estimate supports: go, reshape, investigate or stop. Add a dated review trigger tied to evidence, not simply a routine status meeting.
Say what the artefact is not. An initial estimate is not a release plan, an individual-task schedule or an unchangeable commitment.
Reading
coreDecision package
Present six items together: bounded option, duration range, evidence basis, main uncertainty drivers, cost basis and next evidence checkpoint. End with the named decision and accountable decision-maker.
Preserve later versions. A changed forecast should show what evidence changed and what decision followed.
Worked example and transfer practice
All examples below are fictional teaching material. Use synthetic notes; no workplace or personal data is required or uploaded.
Show the cost arithmetic and its limits. Fictional planning scenarios: 4–6 team-weeks at 12,000 credits per team-week give 48,000–72,000 credits of delivery cost. The rate includes the team’s labour and recurring tools; it excludes tax, supplier charges and operating support. This is multiplication of assumed scenarios, not a statistical confidence interval. Calendar time also depends on sequencing, availability and external queues. Show those assumptions with the range.
Try before reading the guide: Recalculate at 15,000 credits per team-week. Then state what a five-day connector investigation must establish before the sponsor funds, reduces or stops the option. Keep the original version for comparison.
Practice review guide
The new delivery-cost scenarios are 60,000–90,000 credits with the same exclusions. A stronger package includes the outcome, evidence basis, drivers, cost boundary, decision owner and dated or event-based review trigger.
Knowledge check
corePractice · formative check
Check the decision package
Choose the strongest way to close the estimate presentation.
Concepts: decision-grade estimate, review trigger
There is no attempt limit or pass/fail state. Completing the check only enables the lesson's separate explicit completion control; it never records completion or certificate eligibility itself.
Activity ready. Attempts are unlimited. Completing this practice activity enables the lesson's separate, explicit completion control.
Equivalent non-interactive path
Answer and feedback guide
Which closing statement keeps the estimate decision-grade?
- Commit publicly to the midpoint of the range: A midpoint hides uncertainty and does not define the next decision.
- Fund a five-day connector test; on 18 September decide whether to fund, reduce or stop the bounded option (best answer): Correct. It links funding, evidence, date and subsequent choice.
- Revisit the estimate sometime if problems appear: The trigger is neither dated nor tied to named evidence.
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